Sudan's Unraveling: Inside the World's Largest Humanitarian Crisis as Civil War Tears a Nation Apart

The once-bustling streets of Khartoum now lie eerily silent, save for the occasional burst of gunfire that echoes through abandoned neighborhoods. What began as a power struggle between two military factions in April 2023 has spiraled into what United Nations officials describe as the world's largest humanitarian crisis—a catastrophe that has forced nearly 10 million people from their homes and pushed the country to the brink of famine.

"We are witnessing a humanitarian nightmare," says Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. "The scale of displacement in Sudan has now surpassed that of Syria and Ukraine, yet the world's attention remains elsewhere."

As the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) enters its second year, this investigation examines how a nation of 45 million people descended into chaos, the devastating human toll of the fighting, and why international efforts to stem the violence have largely failed.

The Collapse of a Fragile Democracy

Sudan's current crisis has its roots in the fragile power-sharing arrangement that followed the 2019 overthrow of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. After months of pro-democracy protests, military leaders and civilian representatives formed a transitional government meant to guide the country toward democratic elections.

At the heart of this arrangement were two powerful military figures: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who commanded the Sudanese Armed Forces, and his deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti), who led the Rapid Support Forces—a paramilitary group that evolved from the notorious Janjaweed militias responsible for atrocities in Darfur.

"The transitional government was built on sand," explains Suliman Baldo, a Sudanese analyst with the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker. "These two military factions were never truly committed to civilian rule. They were jockeying for position, waiting for the moment to seize complete control."

That moment came in October 2021, when Burhan led a military coup against the civilian government. The coup temporarily aligned the SAF and RSF, but tensions between the two generals simmered beneath the surface. By early 2023, negotiations to integrate the RSF into the regular armed forces had stalled, with neither side willing to cede power.

On April 15, 2023, those tensions erupted into open warfare. Heavy gunfire and explosions rocked Khartoum as the two forces battled for control of strategic locations across the capital. Within days, the fighting had spread to other regions, including the already volatile Darfur.

Escape from Khartoum: The Exodus Begins

As battles raged through Khartoum's streets, residents found themselves trapped in a nightmare. Electricity failed. Water systems collapsed. Food supplies dwindled. Hospitals came under attack. Those who could flee did so immediately, but many had nowhere to go.

"We slept on the floor for days, away from windows, as bullets flew overhead," recalls Amina Hassan, a 42-year-old teacher who eventually escaped to Port Sudan with her three children. "When we finally decided to leave, we had to pass through seven checkpoints. At each one, armed men demanded money or valuables."

The New Yorker documented the harrowing journey of those fleeing the capital: "Families packed into cars, trucks, and buses, forming miles-long convoys on roads where bandits and militiamen set up impromptu checkpoints. Some travelers reported being robbed multiple times during their journey. Others described seeing bodies lying by the roadside—civilians caught in crossfire or executed at checkpoints."

For foreign nationals trapped in the fighting, governments scrambled to organize evacuation operations. The United States, United Kingdom, France, and other countries deployed special forces to secure airport perimeters and escort their citizens to safety. But for most Sudanese, there was no international rescue mission.

"It was clear from the beginning that there were two tiers of humanity," says Kholood Khair, founding director of the Khartoum-based think tank Confluence Advisory. "Foreign nationals were airlifted to safety while ordinary Sudanese were left to fend for themselves."

A Nation Displaced: The World's Largest Refugee Crisis

As the conflict intensified through 2023 and into 2024, displacement figures reached staggering proportions. According to the UN Refugee Agency, nearly 10 million people—almost a quarter of Sudan's population—have been forced from their homes. Of these, approximately 2.5 million have fled to neighboring countries, while over 7 million remain internally displaced.

This makes Sudan the world's largest displacement crisis, surpassing even Syria and Ukraine. Yet international attention and funding have been woefully inadequate.

"The numbers are unprecedented," says Jan Egeland, Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council. "We're seeing entire cities emptied, communities scattered, and neighboring countries struggling to cope with the influx. Yet the international response has been shamefully small."

Chad, already one of the world's poorest countries, has received over 600,000 Sudanese refugees, primarily from Darfur. South Sudan, itself recovering from civil war, hosts hundreds of thousands more. Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic have also received significant numbers.

Within Sudan, displaced people have sought refuge in schools, mosques, and makeshift camps, often with minimal access to food, clean water, or healthcare. In El Fasher, North Darfur's capital, more than 800,000 people—including previously displaced persons—have crowded into camps on the city's outskirts as fighting intensified in early 2024.

"The conditions in these camps are catastrophic," reports Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders). "We're seeing severe malnutrition, outbreaks of measles and cholera, and virtually no functioning healthcare system. People are dying of preventable diseases because the entire infrastructure has collapsed."

Famine as a Weapon: The Looming Specter of Mass Starvation

By December 2023, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) had issued its most dire warning: parts of Sudan were experiencing emergency levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 4), with some areas at risk of famine (IPC Phase 5).

The causes are multifaceted but largely man-made. Fighting has disrupted planting seasons, destroyed food stocks, and severed supply routes. Both the SAF and RSF have been accused of blocking humanitarian aid, looting food warehouses, and targeting agricultural infrastructure.

"What we're seeing is the deliberate use of hunger as a weapon of war," says Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University. "Both sides are systematically destroying food systems and preventing aid from reaching civilians in areas controlled by their opponents."

In West Darfur, where some of the worst fighting has occurred, the situation is particularly dire. After RSF forces captured the regional capital of El Geneina in June 2023, reports emerged of systematic attacks against non-Arab communities, particularly the Masalit ethnic group.

"The RSF and allied Arab militias surrounded Masalit neighborhoods, cut off food and water supplies, and prevented people from leaving," according to Human Rights Watch. "Those who attempted to reach water points or markets were shot. This siege warfare, combined with targeted killings, amounts to ethnic cleansing."

By May 2024, the UN World Food Programme estimated that 25 million Sudanese—more than half the population—faced acute food insecurity. Of these, approximately 8.5 million faced emergency levels (IPC Phase 4) and 2.5 million faced catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5).

"If immediate action isn't taken, we could see famine conditions across multiple regions simultaneously," warns Cindy McCain, Executive Director of the World Food Programme. "The scale could dwarf what we saw in Somalia in 2011 or Ethiopia in the 1980s."

Ethnic Dimensions: The Resurgence of Darfur's Nightmare

While the conflict began as a power struggle between two military factions, it has increasingly taken on ethnic dimensions, particularly in Darfur—a region with a history of genocidal violence.

The RSF, which evolved from the Janjaweed militias responsible for atrocities against non-Arab communities during the Darfur genocide (2003-2008), has been accused of systematically targeting the Masalit, Fur, Zaghawa, and other non-Arab ethnic groups.

"What we're seeing in Darfur is the reactivation of the same patterns of violence that characterized the genocide twenty years ago," says Niemat Ahmadi, president of the Darfur Women Action Group and a survivor of the earlier conflict. "The same communities are being targeted, the same tactics are being used, and many of the same perpetrators are involved."

In El Geneina, West Darfur's capital, RSF forces and allied Arab militias reportedly killed thousands of Masalit civilians after capturing the city in June 2023. Similar patterns of ethnic targeting have been documented in Nyala, Zalingei, and other Darfur cities.

"The RSF doesn't just kill; they destroy everything that would allow communities to return," explains a UN investigator who requested anonymity due to security concerns. "They burn homes, poison wells, destroy identity documents, and seize land. The message is clear: these communities should never come back."

The SAF has also been implicated in abuses, particularly against communities perceived as supporting the RSF. In Blue Nile State and parts of Kordofan, there have been reports of SAF forces targeting civilians from the Hausa and other ethnic groups accused of RSF sympathies.

"Both sides are mobilizing along ethnic lines, turning what began as a power struggle into something much more dangerous," warns Cameron Hudson, a former U.S. diplomat and Sudan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Once conflicts take on this ethnic character, they become much harder to resolve and much more likely to result in mass atrocities."

The Battle for Khartoum: Military Developments

After more than a year of brutal urban warfare, the military situation remains fluid, though recent months have seen the SAF make significant territorial gains in and around Khartoum.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, by May 2024, SAF forces had recaptured several strategic areas in Khartoum, including parts of the international airport, key military installations, and government buildings previously held by the RSF.

"The SAF has employed a strategy of heavy bombardment followed by ground advances," explains a military analyst with the International Crisis Group. "They've used artillery, tanks, and airstrikes to pound RSF positions before sending in infantry. This has allowed them to retake territory but at an enormous cost to civilian infrastructure."

The RSF, meanwhile, has adapted to these setbacks by increasing drone attacks on SAF positions and energy infrastructure. In April and May 2024, RSF drones targeted oil facilities in White Nile State and power stations near Khartoum, causing widespread blackouts and fuel shortages.

"The RSF is demonstrating increasingly sophisticated drone capabilities," notes the military analyst. "This suggests they're receiving technical assistance and possibly equipment from external backers, most likely the Wagner Group or the United Arab Emirates."

Despite the SAF's recent gains in Khartoum, the RSF maintains control over much of Darfur and has established strongholds in parts of Kordofan and the Gezira agricultural region. This geographic division roughly aligns with historical patterns of center-periphery tensions in Sudan.

"We're seeing the country effectively split into zones of control," says Alex de Waal. "The SAF holds the east and north, including access to Port Sudan and the Red Sea, while the RSF dominates the west and parts of central Sudan. This could presage a de facto partition if the conflict continues."

Regional Dimensions: A Proxy War in the Making

What began as an internal power struggle has increasingly drawn in regional and international actors, each with their own strategic interests in Sudan's future.

Egypt has emerged as the SAF's most important backer, providing military equipment, intelligence support, and diplomatic backing to General Burhan's forces. Cairo views a strong, centralized Sudanese military as essential to its security interests, particularly regarding Nile water rights and border stability.

"For Egypt, the prospect of a fragmented Sudan controlled by militias is a nightmare scenario," explains Jalel Harchaoui, a researcher specializing in North African geopolitics. "They see Burhan as the best hope for maintaining a unified Sudanese state aligned with Egyptian interests."

The United Arab Emirates, conversely, has been accused of supporting the RSF, both financially and militarily. UN experts and multiple investigative reports have documented shipments of weapons from the UAE to the RSF via Chad and Libya.

"The UAE's support for the RSF fits a broader pattern of backing non-state armed groups across the region," says a former U.S. diplomat who requested anonymity. "From Libya to Yemen to Sudan, Abu Dhabi has shown a preference for working with flexible, transactional partners rather than state institutions."

Russia, through the Wagner Group, has also maintained connections with both sides but appears particularly close to the RSF. Wagner operatives have reportedly advised RSF commanders and facilitated gold smuggling from mines in Darfur controlled by Hemedti's forces.

"Sudan has become another theater in Russia's strategy of projecting influence through private military contractors," notes Joseph Siegle, research director at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. "Wagner provides military expertise and international connections in exchange for access to resources and strategic positioning in the Red Sea region."

These external interventions have complicated peace efforts and risk transforming Sudan's civil war into a protracted proxy conflict with regional dimensions.

Failed Diplomacy: The Limits of International Response

Despite multiple diplomatic initiatives, international efforts to end Sudan's civil war have yielded few concrete results. The Jeddah talks, facilitated by Saudi Arabia and the United States, produced temporary humanitarian ceasefires in 2023, but these were quickly violated by both sides.

Subsequent negotiations in Geneva, Addis Ababa, and Cairo similarly failed to achieve lasting breakthroughs. By May 2024, no comprehensive peace process was actively underway, and both the SAF and RSF appeared committed to military solutions.

"The international community has been hamstrung by competing interests and a lack of leverage over the warring parties," explains Rosalind Marsden, former British ambassador to Sudan and a fellow at Chatham House. "Neither side believes it has more to gain at the negotiating table than on the battlefield."

The United Nations Security Council has been particularly ineffective, issuing statements of concern but taking little concrete action. Russia and China have blocked more forceful measures, including targeted sanctions against military leaders.

"There's a fundamental lack of political will to prioritize Sudan," says Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch. "Without significant pressure—including arms embargoes, asset freezes, and credible threats of international justice—the warring parties have little incentive to stop fighting."

The humanitarian response has been similarly inadequate. As of May 2024, the UN's Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan was less than 20% funded, leaving aid agencies unable to meet even basic needs.

"The disparity in international attention and resources compared to other crises is stark," notes Jan Egeland. "For Ukraine, the international community mobilized billions in aid within weeks. For Sudan, with far more people in dire need, we've seen a fraction of that response."

The Road Ahead: Uncertain Futures

As Sudan's civil war enters its second year, the prospects for peace remain dim. Military dynamics suggest a protracted conflict with neither side capable of achieving decisive victory in the near term.

"We're likely looking at years, not months, of continued fighting," predicts Alan Boswell, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. "The most probable scenario is a de facto partition of the country into zones of control, with continued low-intensity conflict along contested frontlines."

For civilians caught in the crossfire, the humanitarian outlook is bleak. Without dramatically increased aid and genuine humanitarian access, famine conditions will likely spread across multiple regions by late 2024.

"We're approaching a point of no return for millions of Sudanese," warns World Food Programme Executive Director Cindy McCain. "Even if fighting stopped tomorrow, the damage to food systems, healthcare infrastructure, and social fabric will take years to repair."

The conflict has also fundamentally altered Sudan's demographic landscape. Many of those displaced—particularly from minority ethnic groups targeted in Darfur—may never be able to return to their homes.

"What we're witnessing is the permanent transformation of Sudan's human geography," says Niemat Ahmadi. "Entire communities are being erased, their lands seized, their cultural heritage destroyed. This isn't just about the present suffering; it's about the erasure of a future where diverse communities could coexist."

International actors face difficult choices in the months ahead. Continued diplomatic efforts, while necessary, have shown limited effectiveness. More coercive measures—including targeted sanctions, arms embargoes, and accountability mechanisms—may be required to change the calculus of warring parties.

"The international community needs to decide whether it's serious about ending this catastrophe," says Cameron Hudson. "Half-measures and statements of concern have failed. What's needed now is a coordinated, sustained campaign of pressure that makes continued fighting more costly than compromise."

For ordinary Sudanese, caught between warring factions and abandoned by the world, the future remains uncertain. Yet amid the darkness, civil society organizations continue their work, documenting abuses, delivering aid where possible, and maintaining hope for a more peaceful future.

"Sudan is being destroyed before our eyes," says Kholood Khair. "But Sudanese people have shown remarkable resilience throughout their history. The question isn't whether Sudan will survive—it's what kind of Sudan will emerge from these ashes, and whether the international community will finally step up to help end this nightmare before it's too late."